2015: Francoist Spain vs. Modern Spain
How will the coming of age of the fourth generation of Spaniards since the Spanish Civil War affect the general election in 2015?
(Originally published: March 12, 2012, two years before the sudden rise of Podemos and the abdication of King Juan Carlos, and almost four years before the inconclusive 2015 general election)
I’m not sure how population statisticians calculate these things technically but it occurred to me that the 2015 general election in Spain will coincide with the coming of age of the fourth generation of Spaniards born after the Spanish Civil War and the second since the transition period following the death of Franco.
Let’s assume two ideas for our little blogging exercise today: firstly, that each generation begins to seriously reproduce around the age of 20 (notwithstanding the odd drunken night and furtive mistake) and, secondly, that no-one really remembers anything of the first three years of their life.
This means that, if we start with the children who were born in the middle of 1936 and count successive 20-years periods, we end up with the following list of generations since the start of the Spanish Civil War:
1936–1956: Civil War and first Francoist period;
1956–1976: Second Francoist period;
1976–1996: The transition towards modern Spain;
1996–2016: Economic boom, immigration and recession;
In practical terms, none of these generations has direct memorable experience of the Civil War, which is thus relegated to the past.
The first two do have direct experience of the Franco years and the second two generations don’t.
The third built modern Spain and the formative experiences of the fourth will have been 10 years of economic joy followed by 10 years of economic pain because — let’s face it — as good as Rajoy and his team might be, they’re only perhaps going to be able to stop the economic rot by 2015.
Now, it is fascinating how, broadly, the end of each 20-year period appears to coincide with both the coming of age of a new generation and some really important changes in Spanish society.
When the first generation came of age at the end of the 1950s, Francoist autarchy was coming to an end, a massive economic Stabilisation Plan was introduced, the Spanish tourist boom began and hundreds of thousands of Spaniards emigrated to other European countries.
When the second generation came of age towards the end of the 1970s, Franco died and the transition towards a modern, democratic Spain based on constitutional monarchy was put in place.
When the third generation came of age at the end of the 1990s, modern Spain was consolidated and the fruits of the previous generation’s efforts began to be noticed. The economic boom was beginning, Spain was gaining strength in Europe and participating in the single currency project, and the country opened up to massive levels of immigration from abroad.
So I wonder: what will happen at the end of the 2010s in this new century, when the fourth generation of Spaniards since the Civil War — the ‘ni-ni’ generation, the digital generation, the mobile generation, call them what you will — comes of age? Remember that their formative experiences will have been 10 years of boom and 10 years of bust.
Their formative, life and political references have absolutely nothing to do with those of the two political leaders for whom they will have to vote because, unless Rajoy or Rubalcaba decides to renounce before the 2015 general election, that will be the choice they have.
Both Rajoy (born in 1955) and Rubalcaba (1951) are products of the second Francoist period and began taking an active part in Spanish politics during the transition period.
We could describe them as wise political leaders with immense political experience or we could now start to describe them as political dinosaurs whose references and experiences come from a very, very different era than the current one.
And Spain’s young people know very well that right now their political fathers have been incapable of creating a country in which they feel they have a dignified future.
So the question is: will the ni-ni/digital generation see the next general election as a choice between two wise political leaders who are ready to change Spain for the better and forge a prosperous future, or will they see it as a contest between two political dinosaurs anchored in the past and incapable of really changing anything, given the current economic state of Spain and all that?
Will they choose to participate in politics via traditional formats or will we by 2015 see a huge increase in participation in alternative political movements such as #15M or #nolesvotes?
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