A fourth Spanish general election in four years?
(28/07/2019) Theoretical coalition hopes meet the harsh reality of Spanish politics.
(Original published: 28/07/2019)
Spain has been here before. In 2015-2016, what had been mostly majority two-party politics since the 1970s became four-party politics with the rise of Podemos and Ciudadanos in the months preceding the first ballot. Two general elections and two two-round votes of confidence in the proposed candidates for Prime Minister—Pedro Sánchez and Mariano Rajoy—however, failed to do the job. The deadlock was only broken by the PSOE faction closest to the conservatives ousting Sánchez and then abstaining to allow Rajoy to be reappointed, in the sixth vote at the end of the third debate.
It took 10.5 months. The PP minority government was not a strong one and mostly had to deal with the toxic Catalan separatist crisis.
In 2019, the rise of Vox, led by Santiago Abascal and boosted among other things by that Catalan separatist crisis, has turned four-party politics into five-party politics at the national level, with the PSOE and Podemos on the left, the PP, Ciudadanos and Vox on the right and the hodge-podge of regional nationalist parties (or bits of Podemos) from Catalonia, the Basque Country, Galicia, Valencia, Navarra, the Canary Islands and now even Cantabria. Six groups, effectively.
No party came close to an overall majority of 176 seats out of 350 in Congress by itself at the general election on April 28. The right-wing block—if Ciudadanos can be cajoled into accepting it is doing deals with Vox—comes up 29 seats short, at 147. Conservative regional nationalists (Basque Nationalists, the Canary Island Coalition, Navarra Suma and Junts per Catalunya) would add another 17 seats between them, giving a theoretical total of 164 seats for right-wing parties in Congress, but there is of course zero chance of Ciudadanos, the PP or Vox doing anything with Mr. Puigdemont's party at this stage of the game.
The left-wing block—the PSOE and all of the different bits of Podemos—comes up 10 seats short at 166. Left-wing regional nationalist parties (Bildu, Esquerra and the Regionalist Party of Cantabria) add on another 20 seats, which would push them 10 seats over the line, but in reality the two key leading parties—the PSOE and Podemos—have proven to be at each other's throats and unable to do a deal. As the official candidate for Prime Minister put forward by the King, Pedro Sánchez has failed to build a workable coalition, even with those most theoretically disposed to help him out, and he his now no longer the candidate.
Only his own Spanish Socialist Party and the lone Cantabrian regionalist MP voted in favour, at 124 seats; the different right-wing parties (PP, Ciudadanos, Vox, Junts per Catalunya, Navarra Suma and the Canary Island Coalition) voted against, at 155 seats; and the other left-wing parties (Podemos, Esquerra and Bildu, along with the normally conservative Basque Nationalists), at 67 seats, abstained. The King, wisely, will not be holding a new round of talks with parties for now and the clock has begun ticking slowly towards the next general election, which will be called automatically at the end of September if no progress is made.
That would be the fourth national ballot in four years and—just like in 2016—nothing guarantees the result would be much different.
In a grown-up world, some kind of constitutionalist coalition or parliamentary support deal between the PSOE, PP and Ciudadanos or a more centrist socio-liberal contraption between the PSOE and Ciudadanos might be possible but in this real world personal animosities, incompatible ideological positions and general testosterone levels appear to preclude any such agreement. That leaves as options another attempt at a left-wing coalition—already ruled out by the interim Deputy PM, Mrs. Calvo, on Friday—or a PSOE minority government supported by Podemos and assorted regional nationalists in Congress on a bill-by-bill basis.
Would such a socialist minority government ever pass a budget? What would that budget look like in terms of taxes and spending? What would that government do, or be tempted to do, with the Catalan separatist challenge, both the trial ruling due out in the autumn and the broader political issue?
As MPs go off on their summer break, a new election in November looks more likely than not.