The regional election in Galicia takes place this Sunday. There are 75 seats in the regional parliament, so 38 for a majority. Like in Murcia where I write to you from, the Popular Party has held power in Galicia for over a generation, since 1989. While conservatives have governed in the south-east for an unbroken 29-year run, in the north-west, there was one brief socialist parliament from 2005-2009 because the PP dropped one seat below the majority line. The last vote in Galicia was in 2020, just after the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic.
Feijóo was the PP leader there at the time, and regional first minister. Now, of course, he is leading the PP nationally, stuck in opposition six months after a snap general election in July after which he failed to win support to become PM. Sánchez (PSOE) was reinstalled in the PM’s office, Moncloa, during the autumn and until 2027, thanks to his deal with the alt-left and regionalists, most importantly Puigdemont (Junts), in exchange for the amnesty bill which has still not gone through parliament.
The fugitive Catalan leader didn’t make it back in time for Christmas, when this ballot was called, six months early, after several weeks of national anger over the amnesty deal with Puigdemont and the street protests led by the alt-right. It seemed like a good idea for the right at the time, to try to channel that national sentiment into a new regional victory, the first time Spaniards anywhere have voted since the general election, but the race has proven tighter than they pehaps imagined.
The polls appear to suggest that the PP will probably hold on to its overall majority but just scraping over the line this time with 38-40 seats, with Galician nationalists (BNG) gaining a few seats. Local media are reporting on the campaign as the closest race for a long time, though. An alternate scenario, published by the much criticised national survey organisation CIS, has the PP losing its overall majority by a few seats, down to 34, and the BNG pushing up as far as 31 MPs, from 19 in 2020. Neither Vox nor Sumar are forecast to receive more than token support.
In coalition with the socialists, the second scenario would cause a generational upset to Galician politics and damage Feijóo’s new national leadership strategy (what there is of it) too, because that would be two key elections lost in six months. An increase in the share of the vote for Galician nationalists would cement the idea that regional-nationalist power plays in Spain, in alliance with the left, work increasingly well in practice a decade after traditional political blocks began to splinter and become more polarised. It would be a victory for Sánchez and lead to more infighting on the right between the PP and Vox, and within the PP against Feijóo.
(Results will be in at about 10 p.m. on Sunday)