PP wins Spanish general election...but Sánchez might be able to repeat left-wing coalition

The Popular Party has won a minority victory in the Spanish general election, just, but the Socialist Party has held on to its position much better than any of the polls were forecasting and might be able to repeat its left-wing coalition to form a government. Far-right party Vox has lost 19 seats. The sum of MPs between conservatives and the far-right is not enough to form a new government. With 95% of the votes counted (2019 numbers in brackets):

• PP: 32.7% (21%, +11), 7.7 million (5 million, +2.2 million), 136 MPs (89, +47)

• PSOE: 31.9% (28%, +4), 7.4m (6.8m, +0.6m), 122 MPs (120, +2)

• Vox: 12.4% (15%, -3), 2.9m (3.7m, -0.8m), 33 MPs (52, -19)

• Sumar: 12.3% (15%, -3), 2.9m (3.6m, -0.7m), 31 MPs (38, -7)

• Esquerra: 1.9% (3.6%, -1.63), 450.000 (875,000, -425,000), 7 MPs (13, -6)

• Junts: 1.6% (2.2%, -0.6), 380.000 (530,000, -150,000), 7 MPs (8, -1)

• Bildu: 1.4% (1.1%, +0.3), 331,000 (277,000, +54,000), 6 MPs (5, +1)

• PNV: 1.2% (1.6%, -0.4), 275,000 (379,000, -104,000), 5 MPs (6, -1)

Spain’s centre party, Ciudadanos, did not contest this general election so has gone to zero, as the path the party was on last year suggested. The Sumar numbers are compared to Podemos + En Comú Podem + En Común + Compromís + Más País in 2019. In blocks or possible coalitions, the real results on this hot summer’s evening in 2023 give us, versus the 176 seats needed for an overall majority in the lower house of parliament in Spain (Congress):

• PP + Vox = 169 seats = no majority

• PSOE + Sumar + Esquerra + PNV + Bildu + BNG = 172 seats = no majority

Puigdemont’s party in Catalonia, Junts, has 7 seats. The politicians now have a month to negotiate and argue about who is going to try and govern. This might also lead to a new general election if none of them are capable of reaching agreement. The new parliament convenes in Madrid on August 17.