đ° The Reds And Nationalists Are Coming, Abdicate!
(05/06/2014) Spanish establishment worried the PSOE might go republican again if Medina wins leadership race.
(Originally published on June 5, 2014)
In its editorials last week, The Spain Report described the arrival of new political party Podemos (We Can) on the Spanish political scene as a howl of protest at the years of economic suffering that had caused a political earthquake and introduced a period of creative destruction into Spanish politics.
The Spain Report this week understands the King has abdicated now and not in three or six months time fundamentally because of the implications of those European election results, the extremely delicate nature of the Catalan question, the rise of Podemos, and the economic hardship that is driving their votersâand therefore the Spanish electorate as a wholeâmuch further to the left of the political spectrum than has been healthy for the stability of the modern Spanish system.
The key is not so much the vociferous chanting in favour of a Third Republic that filled Madridâs Puerta del Sol square on Monday but what is happening inside the Spanish Socialist Workersâ Party, because no one has any idea who the new leader of the Socialist Party might be from July onwards, or whether he or she, or the PSOE institutionally, will continue to support monarchy as the preferred form of government in Spain, or what their new position might be regarding the Catalan question.
âThe Socialist Partyâs grassroots are republicanâ, said Mr. Medina, who is widely expected to be a leading candidate in the race.
Senior historical (in the modern period) Socialist Party figures are reportedly disheartened by what is happening in the PSOE. Senior members of the Popular Party are more concerned about the implications for the stability and continuance of the Spanish institutional system than they are satisfied with the chaos in the ranks of the main opposition party.
There is âgrave concernâ in both main parties over the PSOE moving towards the republican left in an attempt to recapture some of the votes lost to United Left and Podemos.
Following a wave of resignations of senior leaders last weekâincluding the partyâs secretary general Mr. Rubalcabaâthere are strong internal divisions in the PSOE over a referendum on the monarchy.
Governing and supporting parties in both Catalonia and the Basque Countryâwhich announced it too wanted its right to decide on more self government in Aprilâhave said they will abstain in the vote on abdication and that they would prefer a republic to the current monarchy.
United Left and Podemos are openly calling for a referendum and a Third Republic.
The rise of Podemos is being driven by a howl of protest at the unfairness of the results of the economic system after almost seven years of economic crisis. Relative injustice is more important than absolute figures, but the King himself in his abdication statement admitted that: âthe long and deep economic crisis that we suffer has left serious scars on the social tissueâ.
During the Economist Spain Summit in Madrid on Tuesday, international investors from Goldman Sachs, PIMCO and Apollo Global Management recognised Mr. Rajoyâs efforts in stabilising the financial and bond markets at the very top of the Spanish economic tree, but chuckled at the idea of Spain meeting its 2016 deficit target of 3% and agreed economic recovery for ordinary Spaniardsâincluding anything resembling normal levels of unemploymentâwould continue to be a very long, very slow, very painful process.
This is precisely the state of affairs that is the driving force behind both the rise of Podemos, with the corresponding push of the Spanish electorate to the left, and the issue of Catalan independence.
The 21st Century is catching up with Spain and the Spanish political establishment is now running very quickly to try to stop things falling apart further.
Paradoxically, the sudden abdication of the King of Spain, in an attempt to lock in monarchy as a form of government in Spain for another generation, coinciding with the historically poor election results in the PSOE and the consequent leadership crisis, could even conceivably produce the most pro-republic Spanish Socialist Party of the modern period.
If a week is considered a long time in politics, the next two or three historic weeks in Spain could seem like an eternity, despite official euphoria over the upcoming proclamation of Felipe VI.
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