What will coronavirus do to Spanish politics?
(18/06/2020) The previous economic crisis led to a five-party system but the Constitution held firm. What will happen this time?
(Original published: 18/06/2020)
What will Covid end up doing to Spanish politics? Twelve years ago, the 2008 financial crisis eventually had profound effects on the way the country's leaders tried to govern the nation. The economic crash led to massive unemployment, abandoned futures, the 15M protest movement, Podemos, the abdication of King Juan Carlos, years of corruption scandals, Pedro Sánchez's struggle to lead the PSOE, the Catalan separatist crisis, and the rise of Ciudadanos and Vox. A two-party system became a five-party system.
In the end, though, and despite some serious worries along the way, it all took place within the limits of the Spanish Constitution. The post-Franco founding document from 1978 held firm, just. Podemos did not, as Pablo Iglesias angrily ranted at supporters in 2014, assault the establishment and overturn the whole system. Instead, he ended up as the Deputy Prime Minister in a left-wing coalition government that has just introduced a version of a minimum income. Catalonia did not, despite Puigdemont's best efforts, secede from Spain and take a fifith of Spanish GDP to a new republic.
Spain's electoral system is not one that immediately replaces local MPs but one of proportional representation that places the focus on the role of political parties. What are the underlying emotions caused by this coronavirus crisis? What response will voters want to see from their leaders in the next few years? What political products will they be in the market for? Nobody knows how many waves of infection will wash over our countries before the healthcare part of the emergency ends. The economic suffering has only just begun and the immediate shock has been more profound than 12 years ago.
Fear for one's life and for the lives of one's family, an actual existential threat, might provoke an extreme conservative reaction, especially when combined with months (years?) of government messaging on hygiene, heath, risk and illness and who knows how many new lockdowns. Millions of job losses and more economic suffering might at the same time create an even larger demand for left-wing social policies. The immediate reaction of Spain's political class, now the first period of immediate danger has passed, is even more venemous partisan bickering than before.
Will this take us all down some dark national road over the next two or three years, with existing parties bitterly trying to reach their existing goals or will party leaders learn to work together? Will the same five political parties still exist in five or ten years time or will a new party slowly emerge out all of the coronavirus suffering?