What will Spain decide on July 23?

The last polls are out. Spain now moves into its election week public survey ban, although party insiders, but not voters, can still see numbers up until election day. This time next week, we will all know what Spanish voters have decided after a final few days of shouting and urging and arguing from the politicians, as if they didn’t do that constantly all the time now anyway. If the result is clear enough, we might even know who is going to form the next government. As you can see in the graphs, the polling trends are clear, across all the polls: a rise of the conservative Popular Party and the Socialist Party since the local and regional elections at the end of May, and a drop for both junior or minor parties on either side, Vox on the far-right and Sumar on the far-left. Unless the polls are herding and a surprise is waiting for everyone, they are not suggesting an overall majority for any one party. The four scenarios from the other day are still in play, and will depend on how the actual voting percentages next Sunday translate into seat numbers across the provincial constituencies using the d´Hondt proportional representation counting method. The politicians then get 25 days to negotiate whatever they want to do before the new parliament convenes on August 17 and attempts to appoint a new Prime Minister. From the perspective of the European left and regional separatists in Spain, we will see if voters care so much about the rise of Vox and the possibility of a far-right, national populist, anti-immigrant, anti-LGTBQ party becoming part of a national governing coalition. From the perspective of the right, we will see if a majority of voters agree with their anti-Sánchez campaign to oust a man they see as an arrogant, narcissistic, terrorist- and separatist-loving liar from office.